I think the PS4 will fail.

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I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Prpich on Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:06 am

Pretty big statement I know, but I really think it might happen. But for this to occur, I have a couple other predictions as well.

1. The Wii U will sell well.

I don't know if we will see Wii numbers here, but I think it will do really well. This means between 15-20 million units by the end of December 2013. With numbers like this, developers can not ignore such a large base for the system. Especially with the new pro controller (don't have to develop motion controls for everything) and a more powerful system (I believe there will be a close gap between the Wii U and Xbox 3). Plus, Nintendo is making quite a large effort to extend their hand to other developers to work on the Wii U. With a combination of first party titles, and a number of 3rd parties, I think this will make the Wii U quite the success.

2. Xbox 3 won't be a significant jump.

The main reason for this is the recession, an attempt at mass market appeal, and the bundling of the Kinect 2. Rumor mills and leaked Microsoft documents have stated the next Xbox will come bundled with the Kinect 2. The original Kinect launched with a $150 price tag, meaning a new version would probably be the same price. Let's just assume that microsoft gets the price of the Kinect 2 down to $100 (just for microsofts sake). The new xbox will also come with a hardrive and probably a Blu ray player. I assume that can be anywhere from 50-100 additional dollars. What does this have to do with the actual power of the Xbox 3? Well Microsofts doesn't want to launch something that is too expensive for the average family, especially during a hard hit economy. I predict the price will be anywhere from 350-400 dollars. If it's $400 then subtract $100 for the Kinect 2, and $50 for the Blu ray and HDD. That means $250 for the actual system, and that's being generous with the price of the Kinect 2, HDD, and Blu ray player. Microsoft also stated that they want the Xbox 3 to be the only box needed for the living room. This could mean there are other television functions that the new Xbox might have that could take away from raw power.

3. The next gen will be Nintendo vs Microsoft.

With such similar power, a focus on younger casual players (Kinect vs Wii controls/family games), and a similar traditional control scheme, the 2 major systems will be the Wii U and Xbox 3.

4. Playstation 4 will fail.


-Install Base
The Wii U will have a large install base 1 year after its release (maybe 20 million after Christmas 2013) and the new Xbox will release in 2013 with possibly 12 million units sold in a year (based of the 360). For the second year of the Wii U lets just assume they only sell 10 million with a total of 30 million units worldwide. This would mean by the time the PS4 Releases (I predict holiday 2014) They will be up against an already 40 million install base for their competitors (30 MM Wii Us, 12 MM Xbox 3s). From then on the PS4 will be fighting an uphill battle that took them a whole generation to catch up from from with the PS3.

-Exclusion
With a 40 million install base for the other two consoles with similar power, the developers will be focusing on that market rather than including the PS4, or will just make ports that wont take advantage of the PS4's power. This creates an even less of an incentive for people to buy a PS4 after it's release because 1. Most games are on the Wii U or Xbox 3, and 2. Most people like to play with their friends and their friends will more than likely have a Wii U or an Xbox 3. This was the Xbox 360s strength this gen. With a year head start a lot of people wanted to get what their friends already had.

-Price
I honestly believe it will be another overpriced console. Maybe not $600, but I can see them selling something for $500. The head of Sony's games devision (don't know his name) said at E3 2012 that (paraphrase) "Playstation hasn't always been the cheapest, but we always try and give you the most long lasting hardware." It made it seem like he was hinting at another powerhouse console. Plus when people see a $500 console vs a $300 (after price cut) Xbox 3 and a 250-300 Wii U (maybe a sweet game packin) they will ignore the PS4.

-Dreamcast
I think what happened to the Dreamcast will happen to the Playstation 4. Sega was losing a lot of money before the Dreamcast and the Sega Saturn wasn't successful (less than 10 million lifetime unit sales). After that Sega pulled out all the stops but still couldn't muster more than 10 million units for the Dreamcast and ultimately became a 3rd party developer. The PS3 lost a lot of money, and in fact didn't make a profit until 3 years after its release. Sony as a whole has lost tens of billions of dollars on their other products, and the Vita is just over 2 million units sold. If Sony does what they did with the PS4 what they did with the PS3 (which I think they will do) then they may have to close their game devision.

This is all a worst case scenario for Sony and I don't think the end of Playstation would be too likely. But I do think that these events will come close to fruition. A more realistic prediction would be that Sony will have to rethink their whole gaming strategy. I also don't think the Vita will pick up that much steam and might hit 20 million lifetime sales in comparison to the 3ds's 100 million + lifetime sales.


Blagh! A lot of typing. So what do you think? Somewhat agree? Or is this all just some BS and I'm crazy? Razz

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by SebTH on Sun Oct 14, 2012 1:55 am

I think your opinion is too soon to judge without fanboy-ish remarks.

We need to see PS4's reveal or perhaps wait until the launch.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Prpich on Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:08 am

Hm, I wasn't trying to come off as a fanboy, although it may seem that way. I like all systems pretty equally.

I suppose the primary thing to take away from this is the next gen will be Wii U vs Xbox 3 with the Playstation 4 being the outlier. Being the outlier was good for the Wii and Playstation 2, but bad for the Dreamcast. I'm more curious as to what everyone else thinks will happen. Even if it's really soon (will be 2 or 3 years before we know how it will play out)

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by ShinyChocobo on Sun Oct 14, 2012 2:10 am

Sony might not be top-dog anymore, but PS3 is a strong brand right now. Heck, I just bought one for the exclusives, even with the PS4 right around the corner.

They're not doomed to fail, they're just doomed to not do as well as Nintendo.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by BigPhaben on Sun Oct 14, 2012 5:57 pm

SebTH wrote:I think your opinion is too soon to judge without fanboy-ish remarks.

We need to see PS4's reveal or perhaps wait until the launch.

At least he makes valid points then pyro's bullshit

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Prpich on Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:13 pm

Pyro?

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Lupucillo on Sun Oct 14, 2012 7:41 pm

I hope not.

I adore the PlayStation, don't like the PlayStation 2 that much but love the games on it, love the PlayStation 3, love the PlayStation Portable and love the PlayStation Vita. But Sony as a company has done everything possible to shoot themselves in the knee with a 12-gauge.

I hope the PlayStation 4 comes out and is a success to keep the competition going in the market, forcing every game maker to strive for better products, so that no one company has the complete monopoly over the market.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Prpich on Sun Oct 14, 2012 8:55 pm

When do you think the PS4 will come out? And what do they need to succeed?

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Lupucillo on Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:17 pm

I am guessing mid to late 2014, but it depends on whether or not Sony can get out of this financial pit they've dug themselves into.

In order for PlayStation 4 to succeed, it needs to develop its own identity. Sony made a big mistake this generation by making the PlayStation 3 a console with an identity crisis. It tried to appeal to everyone, and ended up appealing to no one.

Look at this generation. Wii is the social machine, the party machine that is easy to use and appeals to a wide audience. Xbox 360 is the online machine with the big-budget games and media content and whatnot. PlayStation 3 does not fit in with either side and ends up being an oddball very few people truly appreciate.

Think about their previous machines. The PlayStation was the mass-market newcomer in 1995, and it was home to cheap quick games that came out frequently, like the Mega Drive before it. Saturn and Nintendo 64 were more the powerhouses with important, historically significant games coming out every few months, bigger budgets and more spectacular experiences.

PlayStation 2 was the RPG machine (Kingdom Hearts, Square-Enix games, GUST games, ATLUS RPGs, etc), also the Grand Theft Auto console and Metal Gear homeplace. It stood for those games.

PlayStation 3 came out on the left foot, too expensive and with no unique games to give it an identity. Sony of America concentrated too much on competing with Xbox, and later Nintendo Wii. They had those horrible Kevin Butler and Marcus PSP commercials (in the vein of SEGA in the 1990's) and ended up alienating consumers and losing their audiences' trust. They did not develop their own identity in the Western market, so there was nothing truly appealing or charming about it for most people. It's seen as the 'attitude' console that tries to talk big and be tough, but fails at both.
The Japanese market is another story, of course, and in Japan the PlayStation 3 has its own identity and place in the market.

First thing Sony needs to do is fire the entire American marketing department and hire people who actually know how to sell a product. Next, don't go overboard with the technology or it will backfire and be too expensive. Keep it in the $350-$400 range. Third, develop the console's identity so as to take a place in the market. That's the only way it can succeed.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by BigPhaben on Sun Oct 14, 2012 9:47 pm

Lupucillo wrote:I am guessing mid to late 2014, but it depends on whether or not Sony can get out of this financial pit they've dug themselves into.

In order for PlayStation 4 to succeed, it needs to develop its own identity. Sony made a big mistake this generation by making the PlayStation 3 a console with an identity crisis. It tried to appeal to everyone, and ended up appealing to no one.

Look at this generation. Wii is the social machine, the party machine that is easy to use and appeals to a wide audience. Xbox 360 is the online machine with the big-budget games and media content and whatnot. PlayStation 3 does not fit in with either side and ends up being an oddball very few people truly appreciate.

Think about their previous machines. The PlayStation was the mass-market newcomer in 1995, and it was home to cheap quick games that came out frequently, like the Mega Drive before it. Saturn and Nintendo 64 were more the powerhouses with important, historically significant games coming out every few months, bigger budgets and more spectacular experiences.

PlayStation 2 was the RPG machine (Kingdom Hearts, Square-Enix games, GUST games, ATLUS RPGs, etc), also the Grand Theft Auto console and Metal Gear homeplace. It stood for those games.

PlayStation 3 came out on the left foot, too expensive and with no unique games to give it an identity. Sony of America concentrated too much on competing with Xbox, and later Nintendo Wii. They had those horrible Kevin Butler and Marcus PSP commercials (in the vein of SEGA in the 1990's) and ended up alienating consumers and losing their audiences' trust. They did not develop their own identity in the Western market, so there was nothing truly appealing or charming about it for most people. It's seen as the 'attitude' console that tries to talk big and be tough, but fails at both.
The Japanese market is another story, of course, and in Japan the PlayStation 3 has its own identity and place in the market.

First thing Sony needs to do is fire the entire American marketing department and hire people who actually know how to sell a product. Next, don't go overboard with the technology or it will backfire and be too expensive. Keep it in the $350-$400 range. Third, develop the console's identity so as to take a place in the market. That's the only way it can succeed.

In other words it's not a computer, quit putting the high tech expensive shit in or you are going to get less sells, always make it affordable so everybody can buy it then you will be able to compete better

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Prpich on Mon Oct 15, 2012 3:10 am

I agree. The Wii was family, Xbox 360 was hardcore (i hate that term btw...), and the PS3 was just a more expensive Xbox with some extra exclusives. They need to satisfy their base and figure out how to keep the PS4 relevent.

One concern I have is they will try to reel more people in with Gaikai and have cloud based gaming on their system. I think this will backfire, seem like a gimmick, and people will complain they don't really own the game. Plus this feature will only be available to a small number of people with a low latency internet connection. When I tried Gaikai with a 60 mb connection (when there site was still up before Sony bought them) I still experienced reconnection errors every 10 minutes or so. I want Playstation to survive, but I'm worried. As for the Vita, I think the lifetime sales will hover around 20 mill.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Lupucillo on Mon Oct 15, 2012 7:09 am

Mm....the whole Gaikai thing doesn't really concern me since I never connect my PlayStation systems to the Internet, so it can have it or not, it won't make any difference to me.

The PlayStation Vita is a really spectacular little system, but the problem is every good game stays in Japan and the Western audiences are getting all the bullcrap games.

There is a reason for this: This generation, hipster pricks like Phil Fish practically took a huge dump on Japanese game makers, showing that all-American attitude of smug superiority. Also, the success of illogically overhyped games like Call of Duty made American developers smug and many people regard Japanese games as 'gay' or antiquated, as if they were on their way out.

So the Japanese said: "Well, if baka-gaijin want to play their Call of Duty games all day and don't want our products, we'll keep them where they are appreciated." Or worse, they adapted their products to appeal to the Western market (Resident Evil 5 and 6).

This is bad for the market because tons of people do not play Call of Duty and instead prefer a game like Atelier Meruru: Apprentice of Arland, but English-speaking audiences are going to miss out on a lot of Japanese goodness this upcoming generation because of the current generation's Western disdain for Japanese games. And the example of this is the PlayStation Vita.

If you can't read Japanese, the PlayStation Vita is an iffy investment, since more of the good games and gems will only be released in Japan (the first one being Ciel no Surge, which I spotlighted in the Vita section {shameless plug!} for people to get to know).

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Prpich on Mon Oct 15, 2012 8:09 am

Ah yes, Playstation needs to do well in Japan in order to succeed. I wish more Japanese games came to the west, Some seem to be on the 3DS an hopefully Wii U as well. I just looked up Phil Fish because I've never heard of him. Judging by his Twitter he seems like a douche...

I would like the Vita to succeed because it would encourage more competition. I was actually considering getting one with the Metal Gear HD collection.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Warp on Mon Oct 15, 2012 10:27 am

I really hope it doesn't.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by BigPhaben on Mon Oct 15, 2012 1:50 pm

Prpich wrote:I just looked up Phil Fish because I've never heard of him. Judging by his Twitter he seems like a douche....



To the day I start my own video game business I will help return the Japanese market back to the USA and tell Fish Face to suck it

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Prpich on Mon Oct 15, 2012 2:00 pm

Holy fuck...

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by ImmaGamerGuy on Mon Oct 15, 2012 5:21 pm

I heard this before. Its what Sony drones say about the Wii U. this is a frieking never ending cycle of hate. Sony is my favorite brand of consoles. but I love NIntendo too. If someone told me to pick between PS4 and Wii U, ill pick ps4 (then buy Wii U)

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Thethundara on Wed Oct 24, 2012 6:48 pm

I just hope that Sony has learned from their past mistakes.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Lupucillo on Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:28 pm

They haven't.

Look at this article:

http://www.notenoughshaders.com/2012/09/08/the-ten-year-decline-of-sony/

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Thethundara on Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:37 pm

Lupucillo wrote:They haven't.

Look at this article:

They're also saying that it's "too early" to put a price drop on the Vita, even though it's selling slower than the Dreamcast. I'm serious, look it up. Rolling Eyes

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

Post by Lupucillo on Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:52 pm

I know. I read that article. And it's a flawed analogy.

The difference is the Dreamcast had content as well as horse power. It launched with Power Stone, Sonic Adventure, Soul Calibur, etc. And shortly after got Jet Set Radio, Resident Evil Code Veronica, Skies of Arcadia, etc.

The PlayStation Vita launched with the most powerful hardware. And that's pretty much it.

Content sells hardware. Hardware doesn't sell hardware. It's just an expensive paper weight.

Mind you, I love the PlayStation Vita. As a matter of fact, it's my handheld of choice this generation because it suits my needs better than the Nintendo 3DS. It's a great system to just sit back after a long day and play on the couch.

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Re: I think the PS4 will fail.

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